As 2023 wraps up, many leaders’ thoughts naturally turn to next year, especially when it comes to hiring. In doing so, it’s important to have the right intel to make informed decisions on your hiring needs and requirements.

To assist, our recruitment specialists have pooled their expert knowledge of their sector – from technology recruiting to sales and marketing – to produce this comprehensive analysis of professional job market trends and forecasts for 2024.

Employment Growth and Hiring Demand 2023-2024

It seems 2024 might be a year of modest job growth for the white-collar sector, with Deloitte’s Economic Forecasts report predicting a growth rate of just 0.4% (about 21,300 hires). It’s well below the national average and if it comes to fruition, 2024 will be the slowest growth year for the sector since 2017.

It’s no surprise given the economic upheaval of 2023, with skyrocketing interest rates and subsequent severe cost of living pressures. This has naturally resulted in a weakening labour market, with the recent Australian Government Vacancy Report showing online job advertisements decreased by 9.1% (26,200 job ads) annually.

At a state level, over the course of the year:

• Victoria saw a 15.7% drop (-12,000 job ads)

• NSW an 11.5% drop (-10,400 job ads)

• Queensland a 6.6% drop (-4,100 job ads)

While it seems this slowdown will continue, particularly in the first half of 2024, things look set to pick up by the end of the year and into 2025 and 2026. Interestingly, Deloitte forecasts growth in the CBD-based jobs market will outstrip the national average, with Brisbane leading the way thanks to a boom in public administration and professional services positions.

According to the government’s Labour Market Insights, while employment is projected to increase across all 19 broad industries and all 8 broad occupational groups by November 2026, four will dominate.

One of these is the professional, scientific and technical services sector, with over 200,000 new jobs in architecture, engineering, legal, accounting, and advertising. This trend reflects the long-term employment structural shift towards service-oriented industries.

From our standpoint as one of the leading recruitment agencies in Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane, employers are certainly still planning to expand and hire, but with an increasingly strategic approach. This will encompass balancing cost efficiencies with targeted work on their branding, DEI policies and flexible working models to attract the right talent.

Remuneration Movements

The latest Wage Price Index (WPI) shows a big movement in Australian wages, with a 4% jump this year. This is the highest annual WPI growth recorded since March 2009.

A confluence of economic factors has led to this big uptick. The post-pandemic labour demand surge, skills shortages and inflationary pressures created a perfect storm, placing employees in the driver’s seat when it comes to salary negotiations. This resulted in a record number of salary increases, alongside the 5.75% bump to the adult minimum award wage.

While the WPI provides a comprehensive and consistent measure of wage growth across our economy, advertised salary rates also provide useful insights into the current market.

SEEK advertised salaries grew faster than the WPI this year at 4.6%. South Australia led the nation with a 5.4% increase in advertised salaries, with Queensland just a touch behind at 5.1%. NSW and Victoria lagged behind at 4.4% and 4.0% respectively.

Here is a breakdown of how TalentWeb’s core recruiting areas faired in advertised salary growth:

Turning to salary forecasts for 2024 and beyond, it seems likely a median 4% hike is on the horizon. By industry, Mercer predicts the highest increases will be in financial services at 8.8%, with construction and engineering around 5.5%. This is followed by IT at 4.2%, transport and storage at 4.1% and property at 3.6%.

The Work-From-Home Tug of War

Working from home is a pandemic perk employees aren’t willing to let go. On the other end of the scale are employers who feel a return to the office makes better business sense. It’s a tug-of-war that looks set to intensify in 2024, and which way it goes remains to be seen.

What we can say from our perspective is flexibility and a healthy work-life balance are prime motivators for top talent. These factors are often the determinants for professionals when faced with competing job offers, or pondering whether to stay or leave a role.

Finding a way to strike a balance between WFH and office days is key. Organisations that can work with their employees to negotiate a fair and equitable arrangement will be the most attractive, both in retaining current staff and attracting new ones.

Dealing With AI

Whether helpful or a hindrance, AI is here to stay. And it appears many leaders are moving from a ‘fear phase’ into one of acceptance, working on how to harness its powers for business good. A recent KPMG survey found 70% of CEOs are investing large sums in generative AI. However, just over half (52%) expect to see a return in three to five years.

On the flip side, 55% of companies reported their automation progress has been impeded by ethical concerns around AI-led decision-making. Just over 80% are worried about the cybersecurity risks AI brings, potentially opening doors to new strategies – and creating more demand for technology professionals.

In the employment landscape, many Australian business leaders will use 2024 to work on ways of not only integrating AI into their workflow but mitigating any job losses it may cause. This includes reskilling and upskilling initiatives, creating new roles and transition programs, enhancing human-AI collaboration, investing in AI ethics education and governance, as well as fostering a culture of continuous learning.

Success will come to those leaders who can balance AI efficiency gains with creating and supporting a newly skilled, adaptable, and thus relevant workforce.

Candidate Priorities – DEI Still High On the List

The new year will see employees and candidates continue to place high priority on roles that offer them a good work-life balance, flexible working conditions and allow them to develop their skills. But diversity, equity and inclusion (DEI) are also high on this list, and 2024 will see it move from ‘trend territory’ to becoming an established norm in workplace culture.

Numerous studies illustrate the high-value jobseekers, especially younger generations, place on organisations that not only demonstrate a commitment to DEI, but showcase it. While DEI covers demographics, it also extends to thoughts and skills. Thriving companies will be those that can embrace the advantages cross-functional teams and diverse perspectives offer.

Just over 70% of CEOs surveyed in the KPMG 2023 CEO Outlook believe achieving diversity in their workplace requires change at the senior leadership level. Consider whether your DEI initiatives are genuinely supported and championed by higher management. Are your senior leaders actively promoting and participating in DEI programs?

At TalentWeb, our commitment to diversity, equity, and inclusion is at the core of who we are. We embrace these values not only to demonstrate our dedication to our team but also to set an example for others. We’re pleased to have been finalists in the Diversity, Equity & Inclusion and Best Workplace Culture categories at the APSCo Awards for Excellence this year, and as a finalist for Medium Recruitment Agency of the Year at the SARA Awards. Additionally, we’ve proudly secured the title of Employer of Choice for the 2nd consecutive year at the NSW Business Awards, further underscoring our ongoing commitment to excellence.

Summary

While 2023 has been tumultuous, 2024 is certainly looking to be a little more settled. With inflationary pressures and wage rises slowly stabilising, businesses will be able to breathe a little easier and shift their strategies from reactionary to proactivity.

This is especially the case when it comes to hiring and retaining staff. Here at TalentWeb, we are one of a small number of recruitment agencies in Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane that have deep expertise across eight core industries, including digital, projects and technology recruiting.

Our specialists are always on hand to assist with your retention and hiring planning needs, from helping you set your strategies to ensuring you execute them successfully. Contact us today to find out more about our premium recruitment services.

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